Bulls could use a little Q2 boost
25% of the year is behind us. That was fast! Now, what's next? The halving?
Weekly musing: april fools is so bear market.
The first quarter of the year is over and it’s great to see BTC consolidating between $60k and ~$70k. But bulls and bears are fighting again now that the end-of-quarter shenanigans are over. Who will win in this “weirdest bull market”? Let’s dive deeper.
First, I agree that very few new retail investors are here, which is good as it shows there’s more for price to appreciate. Most of the messages I’ve been getting are from people who got into crypto late in the past cycle and are now active again!
And those are still a minority in this wild space that is still dominated by whales who survived and thrived along multiple market cycles and are fighting a new batch of VCs and institutions trying to find whatever may “the next bitcoin” be.
Now, this doesn’t mean that this current “meme supercycle” isn’t real. It is, but it’s being played by more sophisticated market participants. It’s also true that new retail users are more sophisticated than before, but that’s not “mass retail” yet.
Now, what does this mean for you? Different cults are advocating for the rise of the next narrative, be it around ETH, Base, Blast, SEI, SUI, Ordinals, or the next breed of NFTs (and memes). But what matters is being early and patient.
Or, even better, because few do catch those 100x gems, what matters for most is to remember that four 3x-wins compounded are an 80x move and three 5x-wins are a 125x one. That makes the dream much less daunting. If there’s no crash, that is.
While Genevieve’s joke is apt, stock market and crypto investors are increasingly using options to hedge against a potential downturn in Q2. But that’s just protection, as it’s also clear the bull may continue without significant correction.
Still, one thing is a correction and another are normal dips. The halving is around the corner, and if the bulls don’t show up, many will likely be disappointed in that meme. Let’s keep monitoring that important date and adjust accordingly.
While many are heavily bullish on that moment, note that in the past we’ve never seen a prompt pump right after it. Still, what matters is the demand for BTC and that’s strong. Meanwhile, there are other catalysts ahead of us this April. LFG!
Chart art: weekly outflows are so Q2.
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This reflection on the current state of the market offers some interesting insights.